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The Scarlet Standard

Runnin’ Rebels

A Three-Game Surge Put a Seatbelt on UNLV’s Roller Coaster Season

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Pastner
Photo source: The Scarlet Standard

LAS VEGAS — UNLV’s season has lived on a hinge, with the difference between competitive and dangerous often coming down to a handful of possessions, rebounds and whether the Rebels can keep their best players on the floor long enough for their talent to matter. Over the last three games, that hinge has finally started moving in UNLV’s direction.

The Rebels have beaten Grand Canyon 80-78, San José State 82-75 and Boise State 86-83 in overtime, climbing to 13-12 overall and 8-6 in Mountain West play after a four-game losing streak threatened to send the season in the opposite direction. The headline is the three straight wins, but the reason behind them is more important. UNLV has started winning the margins again, taking better care of the ball, rebounding at a higher level and making free throws when games tighten.

The difference between this stretch and the four losses that preceded it is not simply that shots started falling. UNLV has become more stable from possession to possession, and that stability has finally started putting pressure on the opponent instead of forcing the Rebels to constantly recover from their own mistakes.

The Numbers Show Where the Change Happened

During the three-game winning streak, UNLV is averaging 82.7 points per game while allowing 78.6. During the four losses immediately before it against San Diego State, New Mexico, Reno and Fresno State, the Rebels averaged 76 points and allowed 89.5.

That is too large of a shift to explain through shooting alone. During the losing streak, UNLV committed 58 turnovers in four games, including 19 at Fresno State. Those turnovers did not just remove offensive possessions. They created transition opportunities, put the defense into scramble situations and contributed to the foul trouble that repeatedly shortened Josh Pastner’s rotation.

Since Feb. 7, UNLV has committed 29 turnovers in three games, an average of 9.7 per night. The Rebels have also made 43 of 53 free throws during the streak, shooting 81.1% after converting 59 of 86, or 68.6%, during the previous four losses.

Rebounding may tell the story even more clearly. UNLV averaged 29.8 rebounds during the four-game skid. That number has climbed to 38 per game across the last three victories. Those extra possessions have changed how the final minutes look because the Rebels are no longer spending as much time defending second and third opportunities.

Pastner did not romanticize the comeback at Boise State, even after UNLV erased a 23-point deficit and won in overtime.

“That first 10 minutes wasn’t good. We got our butts kicked on the glass,” Pastner said. “But for us to hang in there and stay the course … and get the win … was great by our guys.”

He immediately went back to the foundation of what he believes has changed.

“You can’t win games in this league if you’re not tough,” Pastner said. “And when we haven’t been tough enough, we’ve lost.”

That has been the season in a sentence. When UNLV has defended, rebounded and protected possessions, it has looked dangerous. When those areas have slipped, the scoring has rarely been enough to save it.

Pastner Believes the Rotation Finally Makes Sense

UNLV’s volatility was not limited to one bad stretch of conference play. The Rebels spent much of the season alternating between connected basketball and periods where fouls, turnovers and defensive breakdowns changed games quickly.

Pastner believes part of that inconsistency came from how long it took UNLV to determine what kind of team it actually had.

“I wish we could have the month of November back,” Pastner said. “It’s taken us time to figure our team out … with the amount of new guys, injuries, not practicing, practicing, trying to figure out who we were … I think we’ve settled into the rotation … guys have understood their roles.”

That helps explain why the current winning streak feels different. UNLV has not introduced a completely different offense in February. The Rebels have become more comfortable with who is being asked to do what, and the rotation is no longer changing every time the game becomes difficult.

Availability is a major part of keeping that structure intact. Pastner has repeatedly emphasized defending without fouling because UNLV has already seen what happens when the most important players are watching the final possessions from the bench.

“Keeping our main guys in there defending without fouling is a big deal,” Pastner said. “It’s cost us games because guys are not on the floor because they’ve fouled out … we practice it … show film … emphasize it … reinforce it.”

He pointed directly to the Fresno State loss, when Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn fouled out with 2:06 remaining and UNLV did not make another field goal.

“Fresno State cost us the game because Dra had those silly fouls … he gets five, and he’s not in the last two minutes of the game,” Pastner said. “We need him on the floor.”

That is not only about Gibbs-Lawhorn. UNLV’s roster is built around length and athleticism, but those advantages disappear quickly when foul trouble determines who is available. During the current streak, the Rebels have done a better job keeping their primary pieces on the floor when the game reaches the possessions that decide it.

Gibbs-Lawhorn Became the Organizer

The largest change has come with Gibbs-Lawhorn.

“When we were doing our entire system … a lot was around those two guys,” Pastner said of Myles Che and Ladji Dembele. “It’s taken time without those guys for other guys to settle in … a guy like Dra who’s learned how to be a point guard.”

That may be the most important development of UNLV’s season. Gibbs-Lawhorn has not simply become the Rebels’ leading scorer. He has become the player responsible for organizing the offense when possessions tighten.

His production during the winning streak has reflected that change. Gibbs-Lawhorn scored 29 points in 40 minutes against Grand Canyon, shooting 10 of 23 from the field, 3 of 8 from beyond the arc and 6 of 6 at the free-throw line. Against San José State, he scored 24 points in 40 minutes on 10-of-19 shooting while adding five assists and committing only one turnover. At Boise State, he scored a career-high 36 points on 13-of-22 shooting, including 6 of 12 from 3-point range, while playing essentially the entire overtime game.

The scoring has been elite, but Pastner has continued pushing him on everything surrounding it.

“I pulled him out … and said, ‘If you’re not going to play defense, you can sit,’” Pastner said. “Part of the reason we’re getting our butt kicked is your lack of toughness on the glass and rebounding … you better start thinking about defense.”

Pastner is not trying to reduce Gibbs-Lawhorn’s offensive freedom. He is trying to make sure UNLV’s most important offensive player also helps establish an identity that can survive when the shots stop falling.

That has been the difference during the winning streak. UNLV still runs through Gibbs-Lawhorn, but it is becoming less dependent on him rescuing broken possessions. He is increasingly controlling them from the beginning.

The Players Around Him Have Settled Into Their Roles

Gibbs-Lawhorn’s scoring has received most of the attention, but UNLV’s recent improvement would be difficult to sustain without the players around him becoming more dependable in their own roles.

Kimani Hamilton has provided one of the clearest examples. He scored 10 points in 19 minutes against Grand Canyon before producing 23 points, 10 rebounds and four assists against San José State. At Boise State, Hamilton added 13 points on 5-of-8 shooting, made three of four attempts from beyond the arc and finished with three assists.

When Hamilton stays available, Pastner has much more lineup flexibility. He can guard different positions, rebound outside his area and provide enough shooting to prevent opponents from loading the floor entirely toward Gibbs-Lawhorn.

Jacob Bannarbie has also played an important part in the rebounding improvement. His 15 rebounds in 29 minutes against Grand Canyon became one of the most important contributions in a two-point victory. Even in limited minutes at Boise State, he gave UNLV nine efficient points without committing a turnover.

Walter Brown has provided another type of stability. Across the three-game streak, Brown has played 100 total minutes while doing much of the work that does not show up in a headline. He finished with eight points and six rebounds against Grand Canyon, then added five points, six rebounds, four assists and two blocks against San José State. At Boise State, he played 41 minutes and finished with seven points and seven rebounds.

Those are not volume-scoring performances. They are the type of structural minutes UNLV was not consistently getting earlier in the season. Brown rebounds his area, defends without panic and provides enough spacing to keep the floor balanced.

Howie Fleming Jr. fits into the same larger picture. His offensive ceiling remains important, and Fresno State showed what he can provide when the matchup opens for him, but UNLV no longer needs Fleming to become the identity of the lineup every night. He can function as another matchup option inside a structure that has become more settled.

That is what Pastner means when he talks about players finally understanding their roles.

The Winning Streak Still Comes With a Warning

Pastner has not treated three victories as evidence that UNLV has solved everything.

“From what you want to see is your team improve and get better,” Pastner said. “We’ve done that. Now we gotta continue to do that … as we enter this last few weeks of the season before conference tournament.”

He has also been direct about how small UNLV’s margin remains.

“We’re a team that can beat anybody … but if we don’t play with great toughness … we could also lose to anybody,” Pastner said. “It’s a possession-by-possession with us.”

The Rebels have already proved both sides of that statement. They have won at Utah State and beaten Boise State twice in overtime. They have also been blown out by Wyoming and New Mexico and surrendered a five-point lead in the final seconds at Fresno State.

The difference recently is that UNLV has started reducing the number of ways it can beat itself. The Rebels are protecting the ball better, rebounding at a higher level and converting free throws at a rate that allows them to finish close games instead of chasing them. The rotation has settled, Gibbs-Lawhorn has grown into the point-guard responsibility created by injuries and the players around him are providing more dependable minutes.

None of that requires UNLV to shoot 50% from 3-point range or produce another 23-point comeback. It requires the same habits to keep showing up.

UNLV is 8-6 in the Mountain West with the final portion of the regular season still ahead. Seeding remains unsettled, and another disciplined stretch could move the Rebels away from the lower part of the bracket and into a much more favorable position at the Mountain West tournament.

For most of the season, UNLV’s ceiling has been obvious. The problem was keeping enough structure underneath it for that ceiling to matter consistently.

The last three games have started to change that. UNLV is defending without giving away as many possessions, rebounding well enough to finish stops and protecting the basketball well enough to make opponents earn their opportunities.

The Rebels did not suddenly discover more talent in February. They finally started giving the talent they already had a more stable way to function, and for the first time this season, that stability is beginning to look less like a good stretch and more like a habit.