LAS VEGAS — There is always a gap between how a game looks on paper and how it actually feels in real time, and Wednesday night at Grand Canyon lives right in that space.
UNLV enters chasing a season sweep after surviving the Lopes 80-78 in Las Vegas earlier this month. Grand Canyon is trying to protect its home floor and answer a loss that nearly turned in the final seconds. With both teams packed into the middle of the Mountain West standings, the rematch carries more than another result in late February. It could change how both teams enter the final stretch of the regular season and how their paths through Las Vegas begin to take shape.
UNLV has played some of its best basketball over the last several weeks, with Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn emerging as one of the hottest scorers in the conference and Howie Fleming Jr. and Tyrin Jones giving Josh Pastner more options than he had available in the first meeting. Grand Canyon remains difficult to pin down. The Lopes have shown they can create pressure through physicality, free throws and their home environment, but they have also produced enough inconsistency to make predicting which version appears on a given night difficult.
To get the Grand Canyon perspective before Wednesday’s rematch, I spoke with Brennan of Go Lopes Radio about where the Lopes stand, what went wrong in the first meeting, how GCU may approach Gibbs-Lawhorn and why he believes the rematch could be decided much earlier than the final two minutes.
1. From your side, how do you view GCU’s season right now? What is the real version of this team?
Mike, your answer may be as good as mine. In a negative and positive sense, just when you think you have an idea about this group they do the opposite. Unfortunately, Saturday (Wyoming loss) was one of those rough ones that left most Lopes fans confused.
2. I noted that this game starts in the first five minutes for UNLV. From what you’ve seen, how does GCU usually come out at home?
They have landed some great first punches, and then also had starts that tell you it is going to be a long night. They also have had multiple furious late comebacks (including round one against UNLV), and Bryce talked about needing that urgency earlier and for 40 minutes. So we will see!
3. In the first matchup, UNLV controlled much of the game, but GCU stayed alive at the line and on second chances. Did that feel sustainable to you or more game-specific?
Absolutely. Especially in that game, it had to be a chaotic set of events with UNLV down their two key pieces for them to be in the game. If that game is 40 minutes and 15 seconds, GCU probably wins. But, and we will talk about him later, DGL was just awesome. And man, his effort also felt very sustainable.
4. That game got chaotic late, and GCU nearly flipped the result. What did you take from how they handled those final minutes?
I am a little ruthless on this, and honestly I didn’t have a ton of feelings on that run. The game is 40 minutes, not five minutes, and a late run with a loss doesn’t get you any sort of points in my book. They played really bad, and that was disappointing the way they played most of that game. Maybe I am on a short fuse with the late run after they did the same Saturday!
5. UNLV didn’t have Howie Fleming Jr. or Tyrin Jones in the first game. How different do you think this matchup looks with them back?
Fleming is awesome, and honestly just him allowing DGL a little bit of a break will go miles on the offensive end. But I think Jones is fascinating. He is a massive body who flies around and gets vertical, and I absolutely think he could cause GCU’s guards some problems. Even if he doesn’t block a ton of shots, just him being around changes a lot of things. He is a chaos agent and in a good way, and I’d expect a big impact from him. If you can cut off GCU’s guards from getting to the rim, the offense has been prone to stall.
6. From your perspective, what’s the biggest pressure point GCU can attack against UNLV?
This is interesting. I do think, like I mentioned above, making life tough on the guards (like they did the first game, but I also think some of that was self-imposed) is how teams have had success against GCU. New Mexico did a great job of that in both games, and it left GCU in a tough spot. If you can make life tough and keep them out of the paint, it results in long 2’s and some off the dribble 3’s that haven’t been proven to be efficient. On top of that, it usually results in not a lot of ball movement as well. But, when GCU’s guards have had success (See second half SDSU) they are really tough to beat.
7. Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn is on a run right now. How do you see GCU approaching him, trying to make him uncomfortable or just limiting everyone else?
Bryce talks a ton about toughness, and I think specifically on the DGL matchup it was appropriate for him to speak on that. I was shocked to see how happy the players defending him were to just get caught up in screens, eventually make their way around it, and then live with whatever DGL wanted to do. Now he did struggle a bit in the second half (they lost him for a three in the second half that was very bad) and I think they wore him down. But bottom line, they have to do a much better job on him. I don’t think limiting everyone else and letting him go off will work, they have to give a much better effort on him.
8. The free throw gap in the first game was significant, with 35 attempts for GCU. Do you expect that again, or was it unique to that game?
Some opposing fan bases may not like my answer, but GCU under Bryce Drew has done a great job at getting to the free throw line. It isn’t a giant conspiracy or bad refs, that is one thing they always do well. They rank top 100 this year, and in the past I think have even ranked top 10 in getting to the line. A lot of it comes from the guard play I mentioned above, although they didn’t get a ton of calls on Saturday.
9. How significant is the home environment? When GCU goes on a run, how much does that momentum actually snowball?
The home environment is good. When they have their fastball, it is definitely one of the best on the west coast. We will see how big of a crowd UNLV gets, but the students usually lead the charge. Unfortunately the legacy/alumni fans do have some work to do and I think will get there, but it is just a lot of loud music and noise and chaos. In the past we sometimes had teams come in and play well that never have had fans at their games (shoutout UTRGV), just because they love the juice it provides. But here is the thing – if the Lopes get rolling, it gets loud, and makes life really hard for the opponent.
10. From your lens covering GCU, where is this game actually decided: early control or the final two minutes again?
I think this one will be decided pretty early on.
11. Straight up, what’s your feel for Wednesday night?
As we know, I am not a homer or biased. But Wednesday feels like a big win for the Lopes, and I think they bounce back. They are due to really get things rolling, and I think are focused and not looking ahead to Saturday. GCU by 16.
Brennan’s final prediction puts a number on the disagreement surrounding Wednesday night. UNLV already proved it can control this matchup for long stretches, even without Fleming and Jones, but Grand Canyon also showed how quickly the game can change once the Lopes create pressure, get to the free-throw line and pull the opponent into the type of chaos their building can amplify.
The rematch should provide a clearer answer. UNLV enters with more of its rotation available, Gibbs-Lawhorn playing at a different level and an opportunity to move in the Mountain West standings. Grand Canyon returns home needing a response after the first meeting and looking to prove its late push in Las Vegas was something more than a comeback that arrived too late.
Brennan believes the Lopes will make that statement early and win by 16. UNLV gets the chance Wednesday night to prove otherwise.
Read Brennan’s full post and Q&A here:
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