The Group of Six College Football Playoff race may start taking shape before conference play ever gets serious.
That is the value of the early non-conference schedule. In a race where several teams could finish with similar records, the selection committee will eventually need separation points. Head-to-head results, power-conference wins and cross-league matchups could become the difference between one conference champion making the playoff and another being left out.
The preseason conversation already stretches across multiple conferences. On3’s early Group of Six ranking has Boise State at No. 1, followed by UNLV, New Mexico, Navy, San Diego State, Memphis, USF, North Dakota State, James Madison and Fresno State. Other national projections have pointed toward Boise State, UNLV, Memphis, James Madison and Hawaii as possible playoff representatives. That range shows how open the race still is. There is not one obvious team sitting above the rest of the field.
The rebuilt Pac-12 has a strong argument because of Boise State, San Diego State and the league’s new structure. Boise State remains one of the most recognizable brands in this tier of college football, while San Diego State enters the year with enough respect to be part of the early playoff discussion. The league also may benefit from not having the same depth that made the old Mountain West difficult to navigate. A top team may have a better chance to separate.
There is also a perception piece with the Pac-12. The league is not the same conference it once was, but the name still carries history. The committee is supposed to evaluate teams, schedules and results, not logos, but perception always finds its way into the conversation. If Boise State or San Diego State puts together a strong season under that banner, the Pac-12 label will not hurt.
The American has the deepest group of realistic contenders. Memphis, Tulane, USF, UTSA, Army, Navy and ECU all have paths into the conversation if their seasons break right. That depth can help the league if it produces ranked matchups later in the season, but it can also create the same problem the Mountain West has dealt with in past years. A conference can look strong and still hurt itself if its best teams keep handing each other losses.
That is the American’s biggest question. Can one or two teams separate without the rest of the league damaging the résumé too much? Memphis has the non-conference schedule to make a major statement. Tulane has enough recent credibility that it cannot be ignored. USF and UTSA have enough upside to change the race if they start fast. Army and Navy are always capable of turning a season into a problem for everyone else.
The Mountain West sits in a different place after realignment. The league lost some of the teams that made it so difficult from top to bottom, but that could help its best remaining programs. UNLV, New Mexico, Hawaii and North Dakota State all have some level of preseason attention. If one of them wins the right non-conference games and separates in league play, the Mountain West can still produce the playoff representative.
The Sun Belt’s case is more narrow. James Madison is the obvious name, and Old Dominion could become part of the discussion, but the schedule leaves little room for error. Without a power-conference win to point to, a Sun Belt contender may need to be nearly perfect. A loss inside the league could be difficult to overcome if there is not a bigger non-conference result attached to the résumé.
Conference USA faces an even tougher road. Liberty showed that an undefeated season can force the conversation, but that kind of season is hard to repeat. Jacksonville State, Liberty or Western Kentucky could become relevant, but the league likely needs one team to run through the schedule while other contenders around the country take multiple losses. A two-loss Conference USA champion would have a difficult argument.
The MAC remains the longest shot. The league has had strong teams, and Western Michigan’s Cotton Bowl season under P.J. Fleck still stands as the recent model, but the conference has not been a consistent part of the national bid conversation since then. Midweek games give the MAC visibility, but visibility is not the same as résumé strength.
That is why the non-conference games matter.
North Dakota State against Jacksonville State in Week Zero could immediately affect two teams trying to build national credibility. The loser would still have a full season left, but the margin would shrink, especially for Jacksonville State if Conference USA does not provide enough strength later in the year.
Texas State and UTSA is another game with broader value. UTSA could be a factor in the American, while Texas State is entering a new Pac-12 setup. The winner gets early momentum, and the result could help frame how both conferences are viewed in the first month of the season.
ECU at Old Dominion has a similar feel. ECU is a possible American dark horse, and Old Dominion could become a Sun Belt contender. If either team ends up in a conference-title race, that game could become a useful comparison point in December.
James Madison against San Diego State may carry even more weight because of what both teams need. James Madison may not have many chances to offset a loss with a major power-conference result. San Diego State can give the Pac-12 another important cross-conference win if it handles the game. The loser may have to be close to perfect the rest of the way.
Memphis at UNLV is one of the biggest early games on the schedule. It puts two playoff hopefuls on the same field in Week Zero in Las Vegas. It is not an elimination game, but it will shape the early national discussion. The winner gets a head-to-head win over another contender. The loser starts the season with less room for error.
Boise State against Memphis may be even more important. Memphis has two major non-conference chances, and winning both would give the Tigers flexibility in American play. Boise State could also be under pressure if it takes a loss to Oregon. If the Broncos lose to Oregon and Memphis, they could be chasing the playoff race before conference play begins.
Hawaii’s games against Stanford and Arizona State are worth tracking, too. A win over Stanford would give Hawaii a power-conference result immediately, and Arizona State would provide another chance to strengthen the résumé. Tulane’s games against Duke and Kansas State could play the same role for the American. Those games do not involve two Group of Six teams, but they could become anchors if Hawaii or Tulane makes a run.
The playoff bid will not be decided by one game in August or September, but those games can create the evidence the committee uses later. When teams from different conferences finish with similar records, early results become part of the argument. A head-to-head win can separate two contenders. A power-conference win can offset a conference loss. A missed opportunity can follow a team all season.
That is what makes the 2026 race interesting. The Pac-12 has the brand and a few major contenders. The American has the strongest collection of teams. The Mountain West may have a more manageable road for its best programs. The Sun Belt has dangerous teams with little room for error. Conference USA needs someone to put together a special season. The MAC needs a team to change the national conversation.
The Group of Six playoff spot will go to the team that wins the right games and avoids the wrong losses. Some of those games arrive before the rest of the sport is paying full attention.
By December, they may be impossible to ignore.