LAS VEGAS — Dan Mullen can study Kevin Decker’s offense at Old Dominion, Lance Guidry’s defenses at previous stops and the players Memphis assembled through the transfer portal. He cannot watch them working together. Charles Huff will send out a team with more than 70 newcomers for the first time Saturday night.
Memphis has the same problem. It knows how Mullen wants to play offensively and has a full season of Paul Guenther’s UNLV defense on film, but Jackson Arnold has never taken a snap for the Rebels, Alex Orji is healthy again and significant parts of both sides of UNLV’s roster have changed.
“There’s no film on the team we’re playing,” Mullen said this week. “I can’t watch one play of this team.”
Jai’Den Thomas will face J’Mond Tapp and the Memphis front. Austin Boyd will organize a rebuilt line, while Jake Pope handles Decker’s spacing and tempo in the secondary. Those matchups begin with the down and distance each team creates.
1. Can UNLV Win First Down Before Memphis Gets Aggressive?
Guidry’s defense is supposed to attack. Huff described his new defensive coordinator as someone who coaches an “aggressive, attacking style,” and the two already know how they want that philosophy to work after spending the 2021 and 2022 seasons together at Marshall.
The problem for Memphis is that UNLV did some of its best work last season before defenses ever earned the chance to attack.
UNLV produced 31 runs of at least 20 yards in 2025. Nineteen came on first down. UNLV also completed 29 passes of at least 25 yards, with 17 of them coming on first down. UNLV averaged 5.77 yards per first-down rush and threw for 1,627 yards on first down, almost half of their season passing total.
J’Mond Tapp can disrupt an offensive line from the front, while Mike Montgomery gives Memphis a second-level defender who can pressure and play the run. Several of the Southern Miss transfers have already played together, giving Guidry experienced pieces to move around within his new defense.
Those players become much more dangerous if UNLV keeps reaching second-and-9.
Guidry can start disguising where pressure is coming from, moving Tapp and forcing Boyd to sort through more possibilities at center. Arnold or Orji then has to operate against a defense that knows the Rebels are much less likely to hand the ball to Thomas on third-and-long.
Mullen now has different personnel producing those plays. Anthony Colandrea and most of last year’s top receivers are gone, leaving Arnold and Orji to work with a rebuilt receiving rotation. Thomas remains after rushing for 1,036 yards, but Memphis knows he is where the offense is likely to begin.
Boyd is central to preventing that sequence. He started 13 games at right tackle last season and now has to identify the front from center while handling two quarterbacks’ cadences. The extra work before and after practice addresses the snap, but the communication has to reach the four linemen around him. Memphis can test the group by changing the front after Boyd first points it out.
Tapp is not the only established defender the new line has to find. Montgomery made 105 tackles, including six for loss, at Southern Miss last season. Interior lineman Jaden McKinney also followed Huff. Their shared background does not establish Guidry’s pressure calls, but it means UNLV is facing experienced players rather than a defense entirely new to college football.
Jaylon Glover gives Mullen another returning back beside Thomas after averaging six yards per carry last season. Their protection work belongs in the matchup as well. A back who meets a free rusher can preserve the throw; one who misses the pickup can leave a quarterback retreating even if the five linemen have carried out their assignments.
A five-yard Thomas run, an Arnold keeper or one early completion into space keeps the entire playbook open. An early tackle for loss changes the next two downs and gives Guidry the game he wants.
2. Can UNLV Make Kevin Decker Earn His Explosive Plays?
Mullen has repeatedly focused on the width of Decker’s offense.
“They spread the field first,” Mullen said. “They’re gonna spread you out sideline to sideline.”
The purpose is not simply to throw short passes. Decker’s final Old Dominion offense could run the ball and generate explosive passing plays after forcing defenses to account for all of that space.
Old Dominion averaged 454.7 yards per game last season, including 238.3 rushing yards, and averaged 6.67 yards per play. Its passing game averaged 8.5 yards per attempt despite throwing only 25.5 passes per game.
UNLV’s defense cannot afford to give Decker those openings. Opponents did not need many throws to do damage in the Rebels’ losses last season.
Opponents averaged 6.6 yards per passing attempt in UNLV’s 10 victories. That number jumped to 11.4 in its four losses, when opponents threw 11 touchdowns on only 96 attempts. UNLV allowed 475 yards per game and 7.95 yards per play in those losses.
Neither Memphis quarterback should have to operate like a veteran if Decker can manufacture easy explosives. The Tigers can use Dallan Hayden and the running game to pull linebackers toward the box, widen receivers toward the sideline and force UNLV’s secondary to defend more grass than it wants to.
UNLV was much more effective once it got opponents into third down last season, allowing conversions on only 32.94% of those attempts. The larger problem came earlier. Opponents averaged 6.26 yards per rush on first down, including 17 first-down runs of at least 20 yards.
If Memphis is consistently picking up six yards on the ground, UNLV cannot spend the night sitting on deeper routes. If the Rebels start adding bodies inside, Decker gets more space outside.
Pope and the secondary have to handle the formations without giving Memphis free access downfield, but the front seven is just as important. Cam Santee, Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu, Lucas Conti and the rest of the group have to make Hayden work without requiring Guenther to solve the run by pulling help away from the secondary.
Pope’s experience helps at the point where the run and pass responsibilities meet. He started every game last season and finished with 81 tackles. Tre Fulton returns after 33 tackles and four breakups, while Quandarius Keyes has a full season in the defense and two interceptions to build on. The returning players should spend less time translating Guenther’s terminology, but the Memphis formations will still force decisions they cannot rehearse exactly.
There is a major difference between Air Noland or Marcus Stokes completing an eight-yard pass after a long read and completing a 35-yard throw because Memphis manipulated a defender out of position. The first forces a new quarterback to do it again. The second lets Decker skip the difficult part of the drive.
3. Can UNLV Steal Possessions Before Memphis Settles In?
Guenther’s defense also gave the Rebels possessions that its yardage totals did not suggest it could earn.
The Rebels allowed 419.1 yards per game and 6.38 yards per play, but they also created 24 takeaways. UNLV intercepted 14 passes, recovered 10 fumbles and finished plus-seven in turnover margin. Eighteen of those takeaways came in its 10 victories.
Saturday presents a different opportunity. Memphis is not bringing an established offense to Allegiant Stadium. It is bringing a new coordinator, a rebuilt offensive line, new primary skill players and a quarterback who has never started a game for Memphis.
Stokes has the larger statistical résumé after throwing for 3,297 yards and 30 touchdowns at West Florida last season, but he also threw 13 interceptions on 368 attempts. Noland has spent time at Ohio State and South Carolina but enters the opener with only three college pass attempts.
UNLV can make that adjustment harder by taking away a possession before either quarterback settles into the offense.
Decker’s 2025 Old Dominion offense offers some context. The Monarchs lost 23 turnovers during the regular season. In nine wins through that point, they were plus-six in turnover margin. In three losses, they gave the ball away 11 times and finished minus-nine.
The secondary has lost much of the interception production behind that 14-pick total. Laterrance Welch had five last season and is not currently listed on the roster; Aamaris Brown and Marsel McDuffie accounted for six more. Pope and Keyes return with interceptions, but taking the ball away cannot become a projection based on a departed player’s numbers. Someone on this defense has to finish the next opportunity.
Guenther may need several series to identify how Memphis is combining its runs, underneath throws and tempo. A takeaway can end one of those drives before the Rebels solve every part of it.
It could also give Arnold and Orji a shorter field. If turnovers leave Memphis chasing the score, Decker may have fewer chances to protect his quarterback with the running game.
Keyes’ pick-six against New Mexico last season is a warning against treating one takeaway as the solution. It helped UNLV recover from a 21-0 deficit, but the Rebels still lost 40-35 after giving up the winning touchdown late. Taking a possession can change the game without excusing the next defensive series over four complete quarters.
UNLV’s own offense has a responsibility here, too. Arnold and Orji cannot give the possession back. The Rebels lost only 17 turnovers last season and finished with a plus-seven margin, part of why they could win games even when the defense allowed significant yardage.
Both staffs will learn things in the opening possessions that the available film could not show. UNLV has to keep Arnold and Orji out of obvious passing downs while making the Memphis quarterback face more of them.
