What is the most potential you see with UNLV basketball, what is your projected starting five, and outside of Sebastian Mack and AJ Storr, which newcomer should fans be most excited about?
My answer changes quite a bit depending on what happens with AJ Storr.
As things stand right now, Storr is not eligible. If that changes before UNLV plays, my starting five is Terrance Ford Jr., Sebastian Mack, AJ Storr, MJ Thomas and Tyrin Jones. If Storr does not get his eligibility back, I would go Ford, Mack, Dontrez Williams, Jones and Thomas.
Storr changes the ceiling because you are talking about adding a proven high-major scorer to a roster that already has more depth than UNLV has had in a while. But I also do not think this team falls apart without him. There are a lot of plug-and-play pieces here, and that is probably what has me most excited.
Pastner keeps talking about pressure, pace and getting back to playing like the Runnin’ Rebels. This roster actually looks like one that can do it. Ford can organize the offense and push tempo. Mack can score. Jones can protect the rim and defend. Thomas gives them rebounding and toughness. Williams gives them another big guard who can pressure the ball, get downhill and run in transition.
More than anything, Pastner should be able to change combinations without completely changing the way UNLV plays. He can go bigger, play smaller, keep fresh bodies on the floor and pressure teams without feeling like the talent falls off a cliff the second two starters sit. Compared with the last few years, that matters.
I do think this team can make the NCAA Tournament. I am not saying that casually, because UNLV has given people plenty of reasons to stop believing the preseason hype. A lot still has to go right.
The chemistry has to come together quickly. There are a lot of new pieces, and having depth only matters if everybody understands their role and Pastner figures out which combinations actually work. They also cannot spend November and December figuring themselves out while dropping bad nonconference games. That hurt UNLV a year ago. If you want to put yourself in the NCAA Tournament conversation, you cannot spend the rest of the season trying to recover from losses you had no business taking early.
That is really where the season turns for me. I think the talent is there. I think the depth is there. I think they have enough different pieces to give teams problems in the Mountain West. None of that guarantees anything, though. They have to become a team quickly, beat the teams they are supposed to beat and give themselves some real opportunities in nonconference play.
And that is why the history matters.
UNLV has not made the NCAA Tournament since 2013. It has not won the Mountain West Tournament since 2008, and it has not reached the conference championship game since 2013.
That is a long time for this program to be irrelevant in March.
We have done this with UNLV basketball before. Every offseason there is a new roster to talk ourselves into, and then March comes around and UNLV is watching the NCAA Tournament from home. That is why I am not ready to say this team definitely ends the drought just because I like the roster in September.
But this is one of the first groups in a while where I can look beyond the top two or three players and actually like the options Pastner has. If Storr becomes eligible, I think the ceiling rises considerably. If he does not, I still think this team has enough to make some noise in the Mountain West and put itself in the NCAA Tournament conversation.
Outside of Mack and Storr, Dontrez Williams is the newcomer I am most interested to see. He averaged 15.2 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.6 steals per game at Lindenwood last season, with those 2.6 steals ranking eighth nationally. He is 6-foot-5, can pressure the ball, get downhill and play in transition. If Storr remains ineligible, Williams becomes even more important because I think he slides right into that starting group.
Pastner has options this year. If Storr gets cleared, he has even more.
Now comes the part UNLV basketball has struggled with for a long time: turning all of that offseason excitement into something that actually matters in March.
What happened to Landen Thomas?
I am trying to figure that out too.
Thomas is still listed on UNLV’s roster, but he has not played in either of the first two games. He was absent late in fall camp, then came back and was at the Week 0 practices that were open to the media. Since the season started, he has not appeared in a game, and I have not seen him around the team.
UNLV has not announced an injury or given another explanation for why he has been out. I plan to ask Mullen about it, but until UNLV gives us something concrete, I am not going to guess.
Right now, that is where it stands. Thomas is still on the roster, he was back during Week 0, and then he disappeared from the rotation once the games started. It is something I will keep watching.
Are you concerned with Jackson Arnold’s completion percentage this week, or is the blame elsewhere?
No. The completion percentage is probably the last thing I am worried about with Jackson Arnold right now.
Arnold has been around a 62-63% passer over his college career. He is at 60% through two games, and I am not going to freak out over an 8-for-18 night at Hawai‘i when I watched several catchable balls hit the ground. He was 25 of 37 for 291 yards against Memphis. One ugly stat line does not suddenly convince me that accuracy is the problem.
What concerns me more is the one read and dash stuff.
Arnold is a good athlete, so sometimes he is going to turn a broken play into something positive with his legs. That is part of what makes him dangerous. But I do not want the passing game becoming first read, nothing there, take off. I want to see Corey Dennis get him working through more of the field and give the offense a chance to develop instead of relying on Arnold to create something once the first option is gone.
The receiver room has not helped either. I still do not know who the alpha is. There have been flashes, but nobody has taken ownership of that No. 1 role and become the guy Arnold can trust when UNLV needs a play.
So no, I am not worried about 60%. I am watching Dennis’ play calling, how often Arnold is actually getting through his progressions and whether somebody in that receiver room finally decides to become the guy.
Jackson Arnold looks pretty damn good through two games. There are still some things he needs to clean up, but overall I don’t think I could ask for much better. How do you think he has done, and how do you think he will do in future games? I think he has a shot at Mountain West Player of the Year.
I am with you. I think Jackson Arnold can absolutely be in the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year conversation, and some of the discourse around him through two games has been strange to me.
I think he has played really well. UNLV is 1-1, but Arnold is not the reason they lost a game. Through two weeks he has 407 passing yards, 143 rushing yards, five total touchdowns and, probably most importantly, no interceptions. He has protected the football and given UNLV production with both his arm and his legs.
That matters to me more than whether every throw has been perfect.
I also think he has a chance to give UNLV a similar kind of total impact to what Anthony Colandrea gave them last season. I am not saying Arnold is automatically going to put up Colandrea’s exact numbers, but the formula is there. He can throw it, he can hurt you running it and he is going to have the ball in his hands a lot.
The Player of the Year conversation is going to come down to winning. If UNLV gets back to the Mountain West championship game, or wins the conference, and Arnold keeps producing without turning the ball over, he should be in that discussion all season.
What I do not understand is the push from some people to give Alex Orji full series because of Arnold’s play. If Dennis wants to build a package for Orji because he thinks there is something there schematically, fine. I can understand that.
But if the argument is that Arnold has played poorly enough that UNLV needs to start taking series away from him, then maybe we are watching two different games.
I have not seen that at all.
There may be reasons to find a role for Orji. Jackson Arnold’s play through two games is not one of them.