LAS VEGAS — A 1-2 start has narrowed UNLV’s College Football Playoff path. It has not lowered the Mountain West standard to making a bowl. The Rebels won their league opener at Hawaii and have seven conference games left, but September has already shown how much a contender cannot keep giving away.
Contending for the Mountain West should remain the standard for the rest of 2026. Six wins and another bowl would fall short of what UNLV has built over three seasons. Barry Odom took the Rebels to consecutive championship games and won 11 games in 2024. Dan Mullen followed with 10 wins and another title-game appearance. Those teams gave the program a reason to expect meaningful football in November.
The first three games have made getting there harder. UNLV has scored 48 points in 37 possessions and has not sustained its production when opponents adjust. Memphis exposed the pass protection after halftime. Hawaii allowed the Rebels to lean into heavier personnel and the run, producing 248 rushing yards in a 21-6 win. North Texas took that away, held UNLV to 98 rushing yards, forced four turnovers and sacked quarterback Jackson Arnold four times. The defense went from keeping Hawaii out of the end zone to a performance in Denton in which Mullen said his staff counted 29 missed tackles.
Mullen has spent the bye acknowledging that inconsistency rather than treating North Texas as an isolated bad afternoon. He said the staff now has three games of evidence showing what UNLV does well, what it does poorly and how those strengths and weaknesses hold up against other teams rather than its own offense and defense in practice.
“We now at least have an idea a little bit where we are, who we are as a team,” Mullen said. “We as coaches now, we’ve got to see where we’re making sure that we are getting the most out of the guys, where we need to execute better. Are we making sure we’re asking guys to do what they do well and that we’ve coached the right things?”
The Sept. 26 game at Akron is the first measurement of whether the break changed anything. Mullen has talked about extending individual periods, returning to fundamentals and reconsidering how the roster is being used. The staff is learning what Arnold is most comfortable running. Mullen wants backup quarterback Alex Orji involved more. The receivers have been challenged to block better and win more one-on-one opportunities. After North Texas, Mullen challenged the entire team to find more toughness and an edge.
“We can control our performance and are we getting better from one week to the next,” Mullen said. “I think that’s what’s critical.”
The offense will determine much of what is still possible. Mullen was hired with a reputation built on quarterbacks and offense, and that side of the ball was supposed to provide stability while the defense improved. Instead, UNLV is averaging 16 points through three games. Arnold has produced good stretches, particularly before halftime against Memphis and as a runner at Hawaii, but the passing game has struggled once protection breaks down and the Rebels reach obvious passing situations.
“I might like a play, but if he’s not comfortable running it, it really doesn’t matter what I like,” Mullen said. “I’m standing on the sidelines. No one’s coming to hit me and I don’t have to throw a ball.”
By October, UNLV should know what its quarterback does well and have an offense built around it. The Rebels can look different from last season. Arnold can be different from former UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea. What they need is something dependable enough to survive when an opponent takes away the first option. Calls with an earlier throw can reduce how long the line has to hold its blocks, provided Arnold recognizes the opening and releases the ball before the rush reaches him.
Orji fits only if the staff makes his role real. Mullen said Tuesday that he wants to get him onto the field more after Orji received little meaningful work through the first three games. Over the remaining nine, those packages either become part of the offense or stop existing mostly as an idea discussed outside of games.
North Texas has to become the defensive exception rather than the start of a trend. UNLV showed enough against Memphis and Hawaii to suggest that side of the ball could improve from last season, particularly when the Rebels tackled well and kept ordinary gains from becoming explosive plays. Denton erased much of that progress in one afternoon. North Texas rushed for 183 yards, opened the second half with consecutive 75-yard touchdown drives and repeatedly added yards after initial contact. Mullen said one play included seven missed tackles.
UNLV needs a defense dependable enough to keep games within reach without asking the offense to race to 35 points every Saturday. The tackling it showed before Denton is a reasonable place to start.
The staff also has to improve the decisions it makes near the end of a half. UNLV has already had two first halves in which scoring opportunities turned into clock-management problems. Against Memphis, the Rebels reached the 15 with more than a minute left and all three timeouts before eventually attempting a field goal as time expired. At North Texas, UNLV reached first-and-goal from the 7 with 26 seconds remaining and one timeout, spiked the ball, ran on second down, used its final timeout and completed a third-down pass short of the goal line before running back Jaylon Glover was stopped at the 1 on the final snap.
Mullen said three players ran the wrong play on that last snap and acknowledged the coaching had to be better. Those sequences did not decide either loss by themselves. They are still the type of repeated mistakes an experienced staff should eliminate. If UNLV is playing meaningful conference games in November, those possessions cannot still be part of the weekly explanation.
The championship appearances should raise the expectation without making last season the standard for every offensive decision. UNLV also left work unfinished in its most important conference game a year ago. In the fourth quarter against Boise State, the Rebels moved into position to reduce a 35-21 deficit. Colandrea found Troy Omeire for 17 yards on third-and-5, then completed a 10-yard pass to Jai’Den Thomas to reach the Boise State 30. The possession had recovered from an incomplete first-down throw and had a chance to become a one-score game.
Then it moved backward. Kayden McGee lost three yards on a run, Marco Notarainni sacked Colandrea for 12 and Thomas lost two more. A false start preceded a punt on fourth-and-32. Boise State took over and drove for the field goal that made the final margin 38-21. The problem was not that UNLV lacked a quarterback capable of completing a third-down pass. It had just completed one. The offense could not preserve the opportunity after two throws moved it into scoring range.
That sequence does not establish the cause of this September’s mistakes. Arnold is a different quarterback and the personnel around him have changed. It does establish why merely returning to last year’s approach cannot be the entire correction. The Rebels reached a championship game with that offense and still needed a way to prevent a promising possession from disappearing into negative plays. Contending again should include trying to improve on what failed when the title was available.
Mullen and offensive coordinator Corey Dennis have to give Arnold an answer after an unsuccessful play. The line and backs must recognize the pressure, and the receiver and quarterback must complete the throw before it closes. A gain that leaves third-and-4 gives UNLV far more choices than a sack that creates third-and-20.
Hawaii offered a more encouraging example of units helping each other. Early in the fourth quarter, Lucas Conti and Kamuela Ka’aihue stopped Sitani Mikaele on fourth-and-1 at the UNLV 10. The Rebels’ next possession gained ground but ended with a punt. That could have left the defense protecting the same eight-point lead indefinitely. Instead, Matt Choules pinned Hawaii at its 15, Kenji Scanlan’s third-down sack forced another punt, and Thomas scored from midfield on the next snap.
Thomas supplied the final margin, but Choules’ punt and Scanlan’s sack gave him the short field. UNLV recovered from a stalled drive by winning the next defensive possession.
The remaining schedule gives UNLV room to change how September is remembered. Cal offers another nonconference measuring stick after Akron. North Dakota State and Air Force follow before the Rebels’ second bye. Northern Illinois and Wyoming come to Allegiant Stadium before UNLV travels to New Mexico and San José State and returns home to close the regular season against Reno.
The playoff conversation has faded.
The expectation to play meaningful football in November should not.
