LAS VEGAS — Dan Mullen did not spend UNLV’s bye week searching for evidence that explosive plays were impossible to create. He said the Rebels had already been close to them. “We’ve had a lot of six-yard plays,” Mullen said. “And we’ve had opportunities to have 60s, but all of them end up only being six.”
Akron has spent the first three weeks allowing opponents to find some of the yards UNLV keeps leaving behind. The Zips’ defensive profile is unusual enough that the final numbers can hide where the problems have actually occurred. Opponents are not routinely pushing the football far downfield against Akron; their average target has traveled 7.7 yards, according to Punt & Rally. Akron has also been competitive at the initial point of attack against the run, with Punt & Rally crediting the defense with allowing 2.8 blocking yards per carry while stopping 18.5 percent of attempts at or behind the line.
The damage has come after that first part of the play. Akron is allowing 6.6 yards after the catch per completion, 123rd nationally. Punt & Rally also has the Zips allowing 2.5 yards per carry beyond the blocking contribution and 1.7 open-field yards, the latter ranking 123rd nationally. Those figures are separate estimates within Punt & Rally’s rushing model rather than components that should be added together to recreate Akron’s 4.9 yards per carry allowed. Its passing explosiveness allowed ranks 129th.
The Zips have often made an offense execute the beginning correctly without consistently ending the play before something larger develops. That is almost the inverse of what Mullen has described from UNLV. The Rebels have created enough openings to move the football, but they have not consistently finished the block, catch, cut or assignment required to turn those openings into explosive gains. That has left an offense averaging 16 points through three games with individual examples of what it can become, but little evidence that it can produce those plays repeatedly.
Taz Reddicks caught five passes for 75 yards against North Texas, including a 35-yard gain. Keyan Burnett produced three catches for 55 yards at Hawai‘i, while Kayden McGee had a 44-yard reception in the same game. Jai’Den Thomas ran for 143 yards as UNLV controlled Hawai‘i on the ground. The explosive pieces have existed without becoming a dependable part of the offense, and Akron gives them somewhere to surface.
The passing matchup does not require UNLV to suddenly become a vertical offense. The Zips have allowed 740 passing yards and seven touchdowns through three games, but the more revealing number is what happens after relatively ordinary completions. Their 6.6 yards after the catch allowed means Corey Dennis can attack one of Akron’s weakest areas without asking Jackson Arnold to hold the football through a collection of slow-developing routes.
That would solve two problems at once. UNLV has allowed 11 sacks through three games. Memphis produced six, North Texas had four and Hawai‘i had one in the game where the Rebels ran for 248 yards and Arnold attempted only 18 passes. Mullen has been careful not to turn all 11 into an indictment of the offensive line because the breakdowns have come from different places. A running back missed one block against North Texas, while Arnold held the football too long on another snap.
Photo by Guy Curtright / owned“Quarterback’s got to get rid of the ball quicker sometimes, and we got to protect better,” Mullen said after the loss.
Akron has recorded only two sacks through three games. That does not mean Arnold can expect a clean pocket without help. Akron’s defense has still generated an 18 percent havoc rate, 50th nationally, and the Zips have enough activity up front to interrupt plays before they develop. Omari Abor has produced disruptive snaps off the edge, while Donelius Johnson has emerged as one of the more dependable pieces in the middle of the defense.
The difference is that Akron has rarely finished that disruption with the quarterback on the ground. Against an offense that spent its first three games allowing sacks for several different reasons, that creates a cleaner evaluation. If the protection holds longer, does Arnold get the football out on time? If the first read is available, does he take it? If the ball reaches a receiver underneath, can UNLV finally turn the routine completion into the larger play Mullen has been waiting for?
The bye was partly devoted to making those answers easier. Mullen said the staff reviewed what Arnold is actually comfortable running rather than treating the call sheet as something the quarterback simply has to conform to. “I might like a play, but if he’s not comfortable running it, it really doesn’t matter what I like,” Mullen said. “I’m standing on the sidelines. No one’s coming to hit me and I don’t have to throw a ball.”
Akron’s defense gives UNLV room to combine that self-scout with the matchup. The Rebels can work through shorter, defined throws, reduce how long Arnold has to remain in the pocket and then put the burden on Akron to finish the tackle. The opportunity does not have to begin with a 30-yard target if the defense has struggled to stop the play after a six-yard completion.
Minnesota showed how those extra yards can accumulate. Javon Tracy caught five passes for 91 yards, while Noah Jennings added five for 72. The Zips’ coverage was not beaten on every snap, but PFF’s charting showed Akron surrendering completions of 44, 30, 20, 18 and 16 yards across the game.
That is closer to the matchup UNLV needs than simply asking whether Akron has a good secondary. The Zips can defend the first route or rally toward the initial catch point and still allow the possession to continue because the tackle does not end the play. That gives Reddicks, Burnett and UNLV’s other receivers an opportunity to create without needing Arnold to win the entire down before the ball leaves his hand.
The same idea appears in Akron’s run defense. Its 4.9 yards allowed per carry suggests a defense that can be run on, but the distribution of those yards is more instructive. Akron is not consistently being moved backward at the line of scrimmage. Punt & Rally’s blocking model credits opponents with only 2.8 blocking yards per carry against the Zips, while Akron has also generated a respectable stuff rate.
The problem comes after the runner gets through. Punt & Rally estimates opponents are producing 2.5 yards per carry beyond the blocking contribution, including 1.7 in the open field. The Zips have been much better at forcing the runner to earn the crease than they have been at preventing the crease from becoming something larger.
That is where Thomas reenters the matchup. At Hawai‘i, UNLV created enough room for him to reach the second level repeatedly. He finished with 143 yards on 20 carries, and the Rebels did not need Arnold to carry the offense through the air. Against North Texas, Thomas had 37 yards on 10 attempts with a long of eight. The initial run rarely became anything more.
Mullen came out of that loss talking about missed assignments and blocks that were not finished. Against Akron, the first block may only get Thomas to the part of the defense where the larger opportunity begins. That places responsibility on more than the five offensive linemen. Receivers have to finish blocks on the perimeter, tight ends have to hold their assignments long enough for the back to clear them and Thomas has to turn the available space into the next level of the play.
Akron’s weakness in the open field matters only if UNLV reaches it. The distinction keeps this from becoming a simple “run at Akron” matchup. The Zips have players capable of ending drives before they develop. Johnson has played productive football at linebacker, and Moorhead praised his development after Minnesota. Akron held Robert Morris to 10 points because it was able to make enough of those first defensive wins last for the entire snap. The defense becomes much more vulnerable when the first contact is only the beginning.
That pattern reaches across both sides of the matchup. A short completion is useful because Akron has struggled after it. A crease in the run game is useful because the Zips have struggled once the runner clears it. A pocket that remains intact is useful because Akron has produced only two sacks. UNLV’s problem through three games has been treating too many of those beginnings as if they were enough.
There has also been another obstacle that no matchup can solve for the Rebels: execution before the play ever has a chance to become explosive. UNLV emphasized communication when it returned from the bye, particularly making sure the receivers, backs, tight ends, quarterback and offensive line were operating from the same call. North Texas provided the obvious reason. The Rebels fumbled four times and lost three. Mullen said there were missed assignments in the run game. On the final play of the first half, with UNLV at the North Texas 1, he said three players ran the wrong play in a situation the team had practiced.
The Rebels did not need another explosive player on that snap. They needed 11 players running the same play.
That is why Akron provides a more useful test than its 1-2 record or 29.7 points allowed per game would suggest. UNLV spent the bye evaluating whether its offensive problems were being created by scheme, personnel, execution or some combination of all three. Akron presents openings in several of the exact places the Rebels said they needed to improve without giving them an opponent that simply concedes the first part of the play.
UNLV still has to get through Akron’s front, Arnold has to make the read, the receiver has to catch the ball and Thomas has to find the crease. Then comes the part Mullen has been waiting to see. Akron has allowed too many plays to keep going after the first job was done. UNLV has allowed too many of its own to stop there.
Mullen has already seen the six yards. Saturday is about finding the other 54.
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