LAS VEGAS — With UNLV returning home Saturday to face Cal, The Scarlet Standard asked Bear Insider writer and editor Jim McGill for a view from Berkeley on both programs after four games. We asked about his expectations for Cal’s season and Saturday’s matchup, what has gone wrong with the Bears’ offense, the challenge of getting Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele comfortable in a new system and the areas of Cal’s defense UNLV may be able to test.
McGill also gave his read on UNLV after the Rebels moved from a 44-6 loss at North Texas to a 38-10 win at Akron, including why Jai’Den Thomas could be central against a Cal defense that has had trouble containing the edge. His answers are presented below as submitted.
1 – What do you expect Cal’s final regular season record to be and why, and what is your score prediction for Saturday’s game against UNLV?
After spring, I predicted a 9-3 Cal season. After Fall camp and seeing some vulnerabilities, I shifted down to 8-4. Now after seeing the playcalling challenges and the lack of cohesiveness on offense, I’m thinking more like 7-5 and even 6-6 isn’t out of the question if they don’t figure things out on offense.
The UNLV score is a little tough to predict, both because I’m interested to see if simplifying the offense and the QB reads pays dividends and also because UNLV seems to have been really hot and cold in their first four games. I’m going to say Cal 31 UNLV 27.
2 – If Cal is going to turn things around offensively and become the team Tosh Lupoi expected coming into the season, what has to change? If the Bears continue hovering around .500, what do you think will have gone wrong?
After spring, my biggest concern was stopping the run, particularly on plays bounced outside and containing the edge. Though the defense has given up occasional big plays when it seems like the game’s not going to go in their favor late, the biggest problem has been the flow of the offense. OC Jordan Somerville as a first-time play caller and it just seems that super-talented soph QB Jaron Keawe Sagapolutele is struggling to process what he’s seeing with the complex tasks he’s assigned with each play. Apparently they’re simplifying things and in doing so should allow him to play more instinctively and let let his arm talent do the work. If they stay around .500, it means that was not successful or he is playing hurt a lot of the season. Otherwise they have enough talent to finish above that.
3 – What has gone wrong offensively through the first four games, especially with Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele? Lupoi has talked about giving him more clarity, changing responsibilities within the staff and becoming more involved himself. What do you expect to actually look different against UNLV, and who are the offensive players the Rebels have to worry about most?
The offensive struggles extend beyond the difficult position JKS has been put in with his reads. The play calling has frustrated fans significantly by throwing behind the sticks on 3rd and long quite a bit and underutilizing a lot of the weapons they have at both receiver and tight end, seeming to be stubborn with forcing the ball to Ian Strong or making the receivers block their way to a first down instead of keeping the ball moving down field. Beyond JKS, receivers Chase Hendricks and the underutilized Cooper Perry are both talented players that can do damage. I also particularly like the tight end room with Mason Mini, Dorian Thomas and freshman Taimane Purcell. Running back Adam Muhammad is a great player but it’s unclear if he’ll be healthy enough to be back this week.
4 – Cal has been much harder to throw against than run against, with six interceptions but 191 rushing yards allowed per game. Why has there been such a big difference between the pass defense and run defense, what are the biggest question marks on that side of the ball and who have been the most impactful defenders?
The pass defense has a ton of talent with four starters that could well be in the NFL within the next year or two in corners Daniel Harris and Ricky Fletcher and safeties Kingston lopa and Isaiah Crosby. DL lacks depth, though they’ve been fairly solid up the middle this season, especially Jericho Johnson. Edge containment is an issue. They haven’t shown the consistency to seal off the edge and keep things inside and to make the right reads and execute properly.
5 – What are your impressions of UNLV through four games? After watching the Rebels struggle badly at North Texas and then respond with 493 yards and a 38-10 win at Akron, what concerns you most about this matchup from Cal’s perspective, and where do you think the Bears have the biggest advantage?
I’m really not sure what to expect out of UNLV this season. The Rebels had a great year last year, barely missing the playoffs and we came into the season thinking that this was going to be a tough challenge on the road but after seeing the first four games, it seems like it could indeed be a tough challenge, or it could be a decent amount easier contest than feared initially. Thomas seems like a back who could hurt the Bears if they’re not disciplined in their running lanes and containing the edge. Arnold has enough talent to hurt them on the ground or through the air but Cal’s defensive backfield is the strength of their D so I don’t think he’ll be as big a factor. On defense, if Cal plays to their potential, they should be able to score but it’s all going to come down to play calling and getting JKS right in my opinion. Though the UNT loss was a horrible look, I think the 21-6 win at Hawaii was an underrated win and shows the team’s potential when they’re on their game, especially on defense.
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