LAS VEGAS — A nine-win season at UNLV is no longer guaranteed to feel like enough.
That sentence would have sounded ridiculous for most of the program’s history. Before 2023, the Rebels had reached four bowl games in 45 Division I seasons. They had one winning record between the 2000 Las Vegas Bowl team and Barry Odom’s arrival, and there were years when simply reaching November with bowl eligibility still alive qualified as progress.
UNLV has won 30 games over the last three seasons, reached three consecutive Mountain West championship games and played in three straight bowls. The 2024 team won a program-record 11 games and delivered the only final AP ranking in school history. Dan Mullen followed by winning 10 games during his first season, replacing much of the roster and getting the Rebels back to the conference title game again.
UNLV enters Mullen’s second season as the favorite in the preseason computer projections for the rebuilt Mountain West and one of the non-Power Four programs with a realistic path to the College Football Playoff. The Rebels have the league’s most recognizable coach, a roster with options across the depth chart and a schedule that gives them a chance to win every week.
Entering mid-July, ESPN’s FPI ranks UNLV No. 58 nationally, the highest mark in the Mountain West and third among Group of Six programs behind Boise State and Tulane. It gives the Rebels a 35.3% chance to win the conference and an 8.6% chance to reach the playoff, the second-best playoff probability among teams outside the power conferences.
SP+ reaches a similar conclusion. It places UNLV first in the Mountain West and No. 59 nationally but projects 8.7 regular-season wins and 5.8 conference wins. Those totals account for the possibility of losing each game; being favored every week does not mean a model expects a team to win every week. The projections favor the Rebels without suggesting they will cruise through the league.
FPI ranks the schedule No. 124 nationally, one of the 15 weakest in the country. Cal is the highest-rated opponent at No. 62 and is projected to finish in the lower half of the ACC. Memphis and North Texas were useful nonconference opponents when the games were scheduled, but both are expected to take steps backward after coaching and roster turnover. Akron is projected near the bottom of the FBS.
The Mountain West may not provide much résumé help, either. New Mexico, Hawai‘i, Air Force and North Dakota State are the other teams the computer models view as potential threats, but none enters the year close to the top 25. UNLV plays New Mexico, Hawai‘i and Air Force on the road, while North Dakota State comes to Allegiant Stadium.
A 12-1 UNLV team could find itself compared with an 11-2 Boise State champion that played a significantly stronger schedule. Tulane and San Diego State also begin the season close enough in the computer rankings that a shared record could leave UNLV vulnerable. The Rebels may not literally have to go undefeated, but one loss would open a debate they would rather avoid.
I want to see UNLV take control of the games it is supposed to win. Another season of fourth-quarter escapes would leave too much to chance.
That happened too often in 2025. The Rebels trailed Idaho State entering the fourth quarter of the opener, needed a late surge after falling behind Miami (Ohio) and played a shootout against Air Force that came down to which offense had the final possession. Mullen’s team won those games, and winning close games is part of becoming a good program, but the margin was thinner than the final 10-4 record suggested.
Anthony Colandrea frequently rescued UNLV when games became unstable. He threw for 3,459 yards, completed a school-record 65.9% of his passes and accounted for 33 touchdowns in his only season in Las Vegas. His ability to create after a play broke down gave the offense answers that did not always exist within the original design.
Colandrea is now at Nebraska, and Jackson Arnold is trying to replace more than his statistics.
Arnold arrives after difficult stops at Oklahoma and Auburn, where he did not meet the expectations attached to his former five-star status. The circumstances around him belong in that assessment. Oklahoma cycled through eight offensive-line combinations in the first nine games of his starting season while injuries gutted the receiving corps. Auburn offered a fresh start, but Oklahoma sacked him nine times on his return to Norman, and the season later brought Hugh Freeze’s firing.
UNLV offensive coordinator Corey Dennis believes Arnold became a convenient target for the failures around him. Dennis recruited Arnold while coaching at Ohio State and maintained the relationship that eventually helped bring him to Las Vegas.
Arnold chose UNLV because of that trust and Mullen’s record with quarterbacks, but he did not arrive as the unquestioned starter. Alex Orji remains in the room after injuries limited him to three games last season, and Mullen has used multiple quarterbacks throughout his career. Arnold offers the more complete passing profile, while Orji changes the offense as a 240-pound runner.
Arnold said the coaching staff has pushed him to remain in the pocket longer, trust throws he might have avoided and work through full-field progressions instead of escaping as soon as pressure appears. It is almost the opposite of what Mullen asked from Colandrea, whose aggression needed to be controlled.
Jai’Den Thomas returns after rushing for 1,036 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. He enters his senior year with 2,457 career yards and 31 rushing scores, already ranking among the most productive backs in school history. Jaylon Glover gives UNLV another experienced runner after averaging six yards per carry in 2025.
Taeshaun Lyons returns as a vertical threat, while Tatum Bell Jr., Tavian McNair and several transfers will compete for larger roles in a rebuilt receiver room. Keyan Burnett gives Mullen an athletic option at tight end, a position that can help the Rebels disguise formations and create easier throws while Arnold settles into the offense.
Austin Boyd and Pittsburgh transfer Jackson Brown received preseason all-conference recognition from Phil Steele, and UNLV should have more depth than it carried into last season. The question is whether the group becomes more disciplined.
False starts and personal fouls repeatedly left the offense behind schedule in 2025, despite UNLV averaging 34.1 points and more than 446 yards per game. Cutting those mistakes would reduce its reliance on late recoveries.
The defense has an even larger step to take.
UNLV produced 30 sacks and 14 interceptions last season, but it also allowed 28 points and more than 419 yards per game. Opponents averaged 177.4 rushing yards, and communication failures led to explosive plays before the defense had an opportunity to win individual matchups.
Paul Guenther spent last season adjusting after years in the NFL, where offenses vary less dramatically from week to week. College football can present tempo one Saturday, option concepts the next and a mobile quarterback in a completely different system after that.
Mike Scherer’s return gives the staff someone who has already coordinated a college defense at UNLV and understands those weekly changes. He returns to teach the linebackers within Guenther’s defense, bringing experience with UNLV’s players and the opponents they must prepare to face.
The personnel gives them a chance to do it. Lucas Conti returns after battling turf toe late last season. Landen Thomas provides burst off the edge. Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu adds speed at linebacker. Jake Pope, Avery Helm, Denver Harris and Tre Fulton give UNLV a secondary experienced enough to survive a more aggressive approach.
UNLV’s 2025 high school class ranked sixth in the old Mountain West according to 247Sports, behind Boise State, San Diego State, Reno, Wyoming and Utah State. The 18-player group carried an average rating of 84.50, competitive with the league’s better classes but still short of the top.
The Rebels’ 2026 high school class ranked first in the Mountain West with 28 commitments and 191.94 points. Northern Illinois finished second at 178.13, followed by New Mexico and UTEP. UNLV’s 84.79 average rating also led every class in the league with more than 20 commitments.
In the same 247Sports rankings, UNLV signed the Mountain West’s top-ranked transfer class in 2025 with 42 commitments, finishing ahead of New Mexico, Colorado State and Boise State. As of mid-July, the Rebels again ranked first in 2026 with 19 transfers, 17 of them rated as three-star prospects, while Reno finished second and San Jose State third.
Mullen has cautioned that recruiting rankings do not establish how players will develop.
UNLV’s success from 2023 through 2025 was built in large part through the transfer portal. Adding a high school foundation gives Mullen a chance to develop replacements before a departure creates an emergency. More competition in practice and fewer positions rebuilt from scratch each winter would make the recruiting gains matter on the field.
By mid-July, the 2027 class has hovered between No. 60 and No. 65 nationally and sits first in the Mountain West, with four Las Vegas high school players already committed. Those commitments give Mullen something concrete to show the next local recruit who wants to stay home and compete for championships.
That would have been a difficult pitch to make five or six years ago. The Fertitta Football Complex, Allegiant Stadium and three years of winning have changed it. Mullen said the national recognition is returning, too, recalling strangers seeing his UNLV hat in a Houston airport and calling out, “Go Runnin’ Rebels.”
Tony Sanchez did not win enough games, but the Fertitta Football Complex became real during his tenure, and UNLV’s eventual move to Allegiant Stadium began taking shape. Marcus Arroyo finished 7-23, but recruiting improved and the roster became more capable before the record reflected it. Odom turned that foundation into consecutive championship-game appearances and changed what the players inside the building expected.
Las Vegas gives UNLV a large market and Allegiant Stadium gives it a major venue. The Mountain West has moved its headquarters here, and the city has become a center for professional sports and major college events. Those are valuable assets when UNLV makes its case for a place in a more lucrative conference.
A team viewers want to watch in November would give UNLV another argument. A conference title and a playoff appearance would strengthen that case, though neither can guarantee an invitation.
After three years of proving UNLV belongs in the championship game, I want to see the Rebels win it. That is a fair demand of this team, and a better measure of how far the program has come than another comparison with the years when nine wins sounded impossible.
