Cal’s secondary has intercepted six passes and allowed only two touchdowns through the air, but the Bears are giving up 191 rushing yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Against UNLV, the question is not simply whether Jai’Den Thomas can reach 100 yards. It is whether Cal can keep him from forcing its best defensive players to spend Saturday cleaning up runs instead of controlling the passing game.
LAS VEGAS — Cal’s secondary has been one of the most productive parts of Tosh Lupoi’s first team. It has also been asked to solve too many problems created before the ball reaches it. Through four games, the Bears have intercepted six passes and allowed only two passing touchdowns, but opponents have rushed for 764 yards on 143 carries, an average of 191 per game and 5.3 per attempt, with nine touchdowns on the ground.
That is where Jai’Den Thomas enters Saturday’s matchup. Thomas has 337 rushing yards on 57 carries through four games, averaging 5.9 per attempt, and he has gone over 100 yards twice. UNLV does not need him to carry 25 or 30 times to affect Cal, but it does need him to keep forcing the Bears to make tackles before the ball reaches a secondary that has already been responsible for too much of the cleanup work.
Cal’s tackle distribution helps explain why. Kingston Lopa leads the Bears with 27 tackles while also accounting for five of their six interceptions. Isaiah Crosby has 20 tackles, and Tristan Jernigan has 19. A productive safety can pile up tackles because he plays fast and closes space well, but when the back end repeatedly has to finish runs, it also means the first and second levels are not consistently ending the play soon enough.
Lupoi has spent much of this week talking about exactly that. Cal had put together what he considered a much stronger stretch of tackling after its season-opening loss to UCLA, but he said the performance against Clemson went in the opposite direction. He did not describe a defense that needed to be rebuilt schematically. His concern was that defenders had stopped finishing plays they had been in position to make.
“Put a stretch together, a really strong tackling defense, and we’re polar opposite of that in this last game,” Lupoi said. “So it’s been a huge commitment of our aggressive angles and sewing up what we need to fix there.”
That is a more important starting point for Saturday than Cal’s season rushing average by itself. UCLA ran for 277 yards and scored six rushing touchdowns in the opener. Clemson finished with 255 last week. Those games account for a large portion of the Bears’ 764 rushing yards allowed, but they also came in different parts of Cal’s development, and Lupoi believes the defense has improved since the opener even if the final Clemson total pulled the season average back in the wrong direction.
The issue has not simply been that opponents are handing the ball off 40 times and slowly accumulating yards. Cal has had stretches where one missed fit, one poor angle or one failed tackle has forced another defender to make the play farther downfield. Against a back like Thomas, that is where a four-yard run becomes eight and where eight can become considerably more if the safety takes a poor path to the ball.
Thomas has already shown UNLV can use him without turning the offense into a volume rushing attack. He carried only 15 times at Akron and still finished with 113 rushing yards, averaging 7.5 per attempt. He also caught three passes for 54 yards and scored three total touchdowns, giving UNLV 167 yards from scrimmage on 18 offensive touches.
The 113 rushing yards are useful, but the more important part for this matchup is how efficiently Thomas reached them. UNLV was not repeatedly handing him the ball into loaded fronts and hoping he eventually broke one. He was getting through the line often enough that the Rebels could continue using him without sacrificing the rest of the offense.
That is the kind of afternoon Cal has to prevent. If Thomas reaches the second level too often, the Bears begin asking Lopa, Crosby and the rest of the secondary to play two jobs at once. They still have to defend the passing game that has produced six interceptions, but now they also have to arrive downhill quickly enough to stop Thomas before one missed tackle changes the drive.
Cal’s defense is built to place significant responsibility on those players. The secondary has been the most productive group on the unit, and it has been trusted with work against both the run and the pass. Lopa’s season is the clearest example. He has been Cal’s leading tackler while also turning five throws into interceptions, including three against Syracuse.
One of those interceptions became the fourth-quarter touchdown that gave Cal the lead in a 21-18 win. The Bears were outgained 436-249 that afternoon, but the defense created enough extra possessions and enough direct scoring to overcome it. That is the kind of game Cal can win when the ball keeps reaching the part of its defense that has made the most plays.
UNLV would rather spend Saturday making those same defensive backs tackle Thomas.
The Bears have seven sacks and 21 quarterback hurries through four games, and AJ Tuitele has six of those hurries himself. Cal has not produced an overwhelming sack total, but it has been effective enough when opponents are pushed into obvious passing situations that the secondary can sit behind the rush and attack poor decisions. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging only 5.47 yards per attempt, and Cal has intercepted three times as many passes as it has allowed touchdowns through the air.
That is why early downs matter so much. Cal has allowed opponents to convert 24 of 58 third downs, 41.4%, and four of five fourth downs. When a running back consistently gets four, five or six yards before the passing down arrives, the defense cannot turn loose the rush and let the secondary play the sticks.
Thomas can put Cal in that position without ever breaking a 50-yard run. A first-down carry for six gives UNLV second-and-4, where Dan Mullen can return to Thomas, use Jackson Arnold as a runner, work play action or attack a linebacker who stepped forward expecting another handoff. A one-yard gain gives Cal second-and-9 and a much different call sheet on the next snap.
That is where Tuitele becomes especially important. He has 18 tackles, a sack and six quarterback hurries through four games, and Lupoi has already asked him to carry a significant workload. Lupoi said Tuitele and Lopa were each over 70 total snaps against Clemson once special-teams work was included, part of Cal’s effort to put its better players on the field after earlier mistakes in that phase.
Against UNLV, Tuitele’s first job is not necessarily chasing Arnold. It is helping Cal keep Thomas from reaching the players behind him. If the Bears can handle the run at the first and second levels, Tuitele eventually gets the down where he can attack the quarterback instead of worrying about Thomas pressing a gap beside him.
The problem changes if Thomas begins forcing those defenders to hesitate. UNLV can run him downhill, use Arnold as part of the rushing game and make the same defender account for both. A linebacker who immediately commits to Thomas can open a lane for Arnold. A defender who waits on the quarterback gives Thomas another moment to press the run before deciding where to cut.
Cal has already identified that part of the matchup. Tuitele’s responsibility in space becomes more important because UNLV is willing to use Arnold downhill rather than treating him as a quarterback who disappears from the play once the ball is handed off. Alex Orji can add another variation, but the larger problem remains the same: Cal has to fit more than one potential runner without allowing the ball to reach its safeties untouched.
That makes Thomas different from simply preparing for a traditional 20-carry back. UNLV can leave him on the field when the formation changes, release him into the passing game and force a defender to carry him after initially stepping toward the run. His 40-yard touchdown reception at Akron came on one of those situations, with Thomas releasing from the backfield while Akron dropped an edge defender underneath him.
Thomas was Jackson Arnold’s first read on the play, but the defender initially removed him. Arnold worked elsewhere in the progression before returning after the underneath defender stopped carrying Thomas downfield. The result was a 40-yard touchdown, but the part Cal has to account for begins before the ball is thrown: the same player the defense has been trying to stop as a runner can leave the backfield and become somebody else’s coverage responsibility.
That places more stress on a defense already using its secondary heavily in the run game. If a safety is arriving aggressively to finish Thomas between the tackles, he also has to recognize when the play is no longer a run. If a linebacker steps hard toward the backfield, Thomas can leave behind him. Cal cannot fix the rushing average simply by telling more defenders to attack the ball faster because UNLV can use that aggression against them.
The Bears do have a significant advantage once the game moves away from Thomas and toward Arnold throwing into their secondary. Lopa’s five interceptions are the headline number, but Cal has allowed only 695 passing yards in four games, 173.75 per game, with quarterbacks completing 53.5% of their attempts. The Bears have not needed to completely shut down every opponent on the ground because the back end has repeatedly created possessions of its own.
Arnold has not thrown an interception through UNLV’s first four games. The Rebels’ only interception came on an Alex Orji attempt at North Texas. That ball security has been one of the more consistent parts of Arnold’s first month, even while the offense has worked through protection problems and stretches where it has stalled.
Thomas can help keep Arnold away from the part of Cal’s defense most capable of changing the game. If UNLV is repeatedly facing third-and-7 or third-and-9, the Bears can play to their strengths. Tuitele can rush without having to worry as much about a handoff beside him, and Lopa can read Arnold instead of inserting downhill to make a tackle.
Cal’s own offensive problems make that defensive advantage even more valuable. Lupoi said this week that the Bears’ offense has produced at an “unacceptable” level and pointed out that the defense has scored as many touchdowns as the offense in Cal’s last two games against Power Four opponents. He has elevated responsibilities across an offensive staff that includes former coordinators Pat McCann and Nick Rolovich, while becoming more involved himself.
That puts even more pressure on the defense not to let UNLV control Saturday through the run. If Cal’s offense remains inconsistent, it becomes much harder for the Bears to absorb long Rebel possessions or a game where Thomas keeps putting UNLV in short-yardage situations.
The Bears’ defensive improvement since UCLA gives them reason to believe the opener is not an exact representation of what they are now. Lupoi credited defensive coordinator Mike Hutchings and his staff with developing a clearer way for the group to play, particularly while the offense has struggled to establish the same consistency. The Clemson loss did not erase that progress in Lupoi’s view, but it exposed how quickly tackling and penalties can undermine it.
One sequence against Clemson captured his frustration. Cal got a third-down stop near the goal line, but a late shove after the play gave Clemson a new set of downs and moved the ball half the distance to the goal. Lupoi called the mistake inexcusable because the defense had already accomplished the difficult part and then gave the offense another chance.
Thomas presents a different version of the same demand. Cal can fit the run correctly for most of a play and still lose if the final defender arrives out of control. It can force Thomas toward help and still give up eight if the help misses. The defense has to finish the down rather than merely put itself in position to finish it.
UNLV’s offensive line will determine how often Thomas gets the chance to test that. Austin Boyd remains out with an ankle injury, and the Rebels have worked through different combinations at center and guard. Griffin Scroggs and BJ Tolo have handled work at center, while Joe Metzger has given UNLV another option inside.
Akron was the group’s cleanest game of the season. The Rebels rushed for 203 yards and did not allow a sack after giving up 11 through the first three games. Mullen was particularly pleased with the line’s ability to handle defensive looks UNLV had identified as possible problems during preparation, because the Rebels had not spent all offseason repeatedly blocking those fronts against their own defense.
That part carries into Cal without needing to turn this into another story about Arnold’s protection. UNLV’s linemen have to create enough movement against a defense that wants its secondary free to make plays elsewhere. If Thomas is being contacted at or behind the line, Cal never has to change the rest of the defense.
If he is reaching four or five yards before Lopa arrives, the Bears have a problem.
Cal has already asked Lopa and Tuitele to handle heavy workloads. It has already spent a week correcting tackling after Clemson. It has already watched UCLA rush for 277 yards and Clemson finish with 255. Now it gets a back who has averaged 5.9 yards per carry through the first month and does not need 25 attempts to affect the game.
That is the real Thomas matchup Saturday. UNLV does not need him to carry the offense the way it did at Hawai‘i, and it does not need another 50-yard touchdown run to prove the point. It needs him to keep reaching the part of Cal’s defense that would rather spend the afternoon defending everything else.
If Thomas is consistently being tackled by Lopa and the safeties, the rushing total may look productive.
Cal would rather never make them have to.
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