LAS VEGAS — Tim Polasek spent part of his Tuesday press conference talking about North Dakota State’s missed sacks, UNLV’s defensive fronts and the problems that come with taking an unbeaten team into Allegiant Stadium. When the NDSU coach was asked what could ultimately decide Saturday’s game, he went straight to the quarterbacks.
“I think the key is which quarterback,” Polasek said. “I think this is a little bit about which quarterback performs the best and gives his team the best chance at the most successful plays.”
That puts Jackson Arnold and Nathan Hayes at the center of a matchup between two offenses that have increasingly allowed their quarterbacks to affect the game with their legs.
Hayes has completed 75 of 116 passes for 995 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 122 net rushing yards and three scores. Arnold has thrown for 1,068 yards and eight touchdowns without an interception on his own attempts while rushing for 270 yards and five touchdowns.
Hayes’ running became a larger part of NDSU’s offense in Saturday’s 28-0 win over Wyoming. He carried 10 times for 79 yards and scored on runs of 8 and 14 yards. Polasek said the Bison had called some of those concepts earlier in the season without creating the same opportunities for Hayes to keep the football, but the reads were there against Wyoming and Hayes took them.
UNLV creates a similar problem with Arnold, only through a different offense. Arnold rushed for 110 yards against Cal, including a 55-yard touchdown, and Polasek is preparing for more than a quarterback who can escape when a pass play breaks down. He specifically pointed to the designed quarterback runs and run-pass conflicts Dan Mullen can build around Arnold.
“The called runs that can be passes are probably where” the challenge begins, Polasek said. “The conflict they kind of create with some of their quarterback-run RPO stuff can be.”
Arnold becomes more difficult to defend when the original play does break down. Polasek said UNLV has repeatedly gotten production when Arnold buys additional time and a receiver works free late, forcing defensive backs to stay in coverage while also accounting for a quarterback capable of leaving the pocket himself.
“He can extend plays, and then he’s a totally capable runner,” Polasek said. “The scariest part of that, they’re a pretty sharp outfit down there with a lot of coaching experience. They’re going to put you in some formations that have quarterback run to them, but there’s also pass conflicts all over the place.”
That is part of why Polasek came away dissatisfied with several snaps from the Wyoming shutout. NDSU held the Cowboys to eight first downs, 162 total yards and 52 passing yards, but Polasek counted three sacks the Bison failed to finish and two more tackles he believed should have been made.
Against Wyoming, those misses never threatened the result. Against Arnold, allowing the quarterback to escape the first defender can extend a possession or turn a potential loss into an explosive play.
“We missed three sacks, and we got to get the guy to the ground,” Polasek said. “That’s going to be important in this next matchup. This guy’s a strong athlete.”
Getting Arnold down will not solve the entire problem. Polasek also sees a UNLV offense that has become more willing to attack vertically as the season has progressed, and Cal saw that change produce immediate results. Arnold hit Kayden McGee for a 70-yard touchdown and Taz Reddicks for a 36-yard score before finding Keyan Burnett for the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.
McGee’s return gave UNLV another vertical threat after missing time earlier in the season, and he now has eight catches for 188 yards and two touchdowns. Reddicks leads the Rebels with 272 receiving yards, while Burnett has nine catches for 99 yards and a touchdown.
“I think it’s not surprising just how the evolution of their offense as the season’s gone,” Polasek said. “They’ve become, okay, let’s push it downfield. They’ve got three capable receivers and a good tight end.”
NDSU plans to mix zone, man and match coverages, but Polasek’s instructions to the secondary begin with understanding where the help is and preventing UNLV from creating immediate separation away from it. If the first defender can stay connected and the next defender can finish the play, the Bison can force UNLV to keep snapping the football instead of allowing Arnold and his receivers to decide a possession with one play.
“We just got to know where our help is, and we can’t get beat quickly away from our help,” Polasek said. “That’s the key in this thing. And getting the ball tackled. Make them line up and do it again.”
Polasek sees a different challenge when NDSU has the football. He pointed to defensive coordinator Paul Guenther’s NFL background and UNLV’s ability to change fronts and create pressure based on an offense’s protection rules. Against Cal’s empty formations, UNLV could put six defenders at the line against five potential blockers, forcing the quarterback to identify the unblocked defender before the snap and affecting where the football had to go.
“They understand how to cultivate and create matchups against your weakest part of your game or a weak guy on your team,” Polasek said.
UNLV has 14 sacks through five games. Tre Fulton leads the Rebels with 3.5, Kal-El Togafau has three, Andre Porter and Elias Rudolph have two apiece, and the defense has recorded 26 tackles for loss.
The picture can also change before the snap, with Polasek noting that UNLV can reduce its defensive front, put a nose tackle directly over the center and move between odd and even looks. That places more responsibility on an NDSU offensive line that has had snaps where communication mistakes allowed linebackers to come through untouched.
“Their targeting and our ability to communicate and be connected up front is going to be critical,” Polasek said.
Polasek also singled out safety Jake Pope, who is second on UNLV with 36 tackles and has three pass breakups. The numbers were not what caught his attention as much as Pope’s recognition, his ability to break on the football and his role in organizing the defense.
“He’s got great ball-out breaks, football IQ,” Polasek said. “He gets them lined up.”
North Dakota State appears to have avoided a major injury coming out of Wyoming, although there are several players Polasek continues to watch. Running back Myles Mitchell is improving after missing the Wyoming game, and Polasek said he believed Mitchell would have been listed as probable if NDSU had been required to issue an injury designation Tuesday.
Mitchell remains the Bison’s second-leading rusher with 214 yards and three touchdowns on 46 carries. His absence against Wyoming increased DJ Scott’s workload and created additional carries for Brady Wavrunek.
Hayes is dealing with what Polasek described as a bruised toe, while Chris Kiel’s ankle continues to improve. Polasek said he was not aware of anything major coming out of Saturday’s game and expected the smaller issues to be evaluated as NDSU returned to padded practices.
Hayes enters the week with Polasek believing his confidence and timing are as good as they have been this season, although the coach still wants better recognition of when a play is finished.
“I think he’s playing at a real high level when it comes to rhythm and timing,” Polasek said. “I think the area that he can still grow in is, okay, it’s bad, it’s bad, move on and keep us ahead of the chains.”
NDSU has turned the ball over only three times through five games, controlled possession for an average of 32:27 and scored on 16 of 18 red-zone trips. Polasek still pointed to two possessions against Wyoming that he does not want following the Bison to Las Vegas.
One stalled on third-and-4 in the red zone and ended with a field goal. Another ended with a fumble inside NDSU territory and created Wyoming’s best scoring opportunity of the game.
“Those are the types of things that’ll bite us in the butt here down the road,” Polasek said.
Saturday provides considerably less room for those mistakes. UNLV has won two straight, NDSU remains unbeaten and the winner will leave Allegiant Stadium with one of the strongest early positions in the Mountain West race. Polasek is trying to keep his team away from that larger conversation and focused on the preparation that got NDSU through its first five games without a loss.
“There is no big picture right now,” he said. “It’s a one-and-0 mentality, and we got to fly into Vegas and we got to get ready to play snap number one.”
NDSU is also preparing for a louder road environment than it faced against Wyoming. The Bison expect a significant number of their supporters to travel, while Mullen has challenged UNLV fans and students to build on the crowd that watched the Rebels beat Cal.
Polasek said the Bison will prepare for the possibility that crowd noise affects their cadence, although he does not yet know whether it will require a substantial adjustment. What he does expect is that neither quarterback, and neither team, will settle the game quickly.
“This should be a dog fight,” Polasek said, “four-quarter game.”
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