LAS VEGAS — UNLV hired Dan Mullen to win championships, and through a season and a half, his teams have done a much better job beating struggling opponents than beating the teams standing in their way. Mullen is 11-0 against FBS teams that finished last season at .500 or below or sit there now. Against teams with winning records, he is 2-7. Saturday’s 41-31 loss at Air Force was the latest, with UNLV taking a lead into the fourth quarter before the Falcons scored 21 consecutive points.
Fourteen wins in 21 games is a good start. Beating UCLA and Cal is good for UNLV. So is avoiding the kind of loss that can wreck a season before the championship race gets serious. But the Rebels have now lost seven of nine games against teams above .500, and the football behind those results is becoming familiar. They run for fewer yards, score fewer points and allow the other team to move much more efficiently. When they do put themselves in position to win, they have too often failed to get the stop or sustain the possession they need.
The two wins came against Hawai‘i last season and North Dakota State this season. Hawai‘i finished 9-4, and UNLV beat it 38-10. NDSU is 6-1, with its only loss coming against the Rebels last week. Those teams have a combined 15-5 record. The seven losses were to Boise State twice, New Mexico and Ohio last season, then Memphis, North Texas and Air Force this year. Last season’s records include bowl games; this season’s are through Saturday.
Mullen’s FBS opponents finished a combined 76-90 last season. This year’s seven opponents are 25-22, putting the total at 101-112. Boise State counts twice because UNLV played the Broncos twice. Mullen’s other victory came against Idaho State, an FCS team that finished 6-6, bringing the full schedule to 107-118. UNLV has won plenty of games under Mullen, but it has also played plenty of teams that were losing to everybody else.
UCLA and Cal belong in that discussion. Beating both is an accomplishment, especially because UNLV was outgained in each game and still found a way to win. The Rebels beat UCLA 30-23 last year and Cal 39-31 this year. But UCLA finished 3-9, and Cal is 3-4 after losing to Wake Forest on Saturday. Their combined record is 6-13. Mullen should get credit for beating Big Ten and ACC teams without those conference names doing more work than the teams’ actual results.
In the Mountain West, Mullen is 6-0 against teams below .500 and 2-4 against teams with winning records, including the championship game. Wyoming, Air Force, Colorado State, Utah State and Reno finished a combined 19-42 last season. Hawai‘i is 1-6 this year, bringing those six teams to 20-48. UNLV beat Colorado State 42-10 and Reno 42-17, but it also needed 51 points to beat Air Force by three and survived Utah State 29-26. Even some of the wins against struggling teams have required the offense to cover for problems elsewhere.
Against FBS teams at .500 or below, UNLV averages 36.5 points and 437.5 yards. Against teams with winning records, it averages 22.9 points and 388.7 yards. The defense gives up 22.5 points and 385.5 yards against teams at .500 or below, compared with 31.1 points and 415.7 yards against teams above it. Miami (Ohio), which finished 7-7 last season, is included with the teams at .500 or below. Idaho State is outside the FBS numbers.
The Rebels lose almost two touchdowns of scoring against better teams while allowing nearly nine more points. Their yardage does not fall nearly as much as their scoring, which is why simply pointing to an afternoon’s offensive total misses too much. UNLV can move the ball and still leave itself short of what it needs. A drive that ends without points, a turnover after a first down or a possession that never gets started can erase the value of several productive plays.
The conference numbers show where some of that offense goes. UNLV averages 218.8 rushing yards against teams below .500 and 176.3 against teams with winning records. Passing yardage is almost unchanged, moving from 232 yards per game to 233. Overall offensive efficiency falls from 7.21 yards per play to 5.93. The Rebels still get passing yards. They get less out of the run game and need more plays to move downfield.
That makes the offense harder to sustain. When a run produces little, the quarterback has to recover the yards through the air or with his legs. The protection has to hold when the defense expects a pass, and receivers have to get open against coverage designed to stop it. One failed play puts more pressure on the next. Against better defenses, UNLV has not consistently handled those situations well enough to keep scoring.
The defense has been worse. Mountain West teams below .500 average 5.33 yards per play against UNLV. Teams with winning records average 7.08. Their scoring rises from 20.7 points per game to 32, and their rushing production rises from 187 yards to 211.7. While UNLV’s offense has to work harder, its defense is giving the opponent an easier afternoon.
Boise State showed how badly that can end last October. UNLV scored 31 points and gained 476 yards. The Broncos gained 558 yards on 57 plays, rushed for 294 and won 56-31. Boise State averaged almost 9.8 yards per snap. The Rebels made offensive mistakes, but their defense had made nearly every empty possession a problem. Thirty-one points left them 25 short.
Two weeks later, UNLV took a 35-34 fourth-quarter lead against New Mexico and forced third-and-12 on the next possession. The Lobos converted with a 19-yard completion and went on to score the winning touchdown. UNLV’s next drive ended on downs. The Rebels had the lead and had created the down and distance they wanted. They still could not get off the field.
The championship game against Boise State required UNLV to recover from a 21-0 deficit. The Rebels fought back to 28-21 entering the fourth quarter, then went scoreless while the Broncos scored 10 more. They had done enough to give themselves a chance after a terrible start. They could not finish the comeback.
Air Force was more frustrating because UNLV led entering the fourth quarter despite having struggled defensively for most of the afternoon. The Falcons rushed for 430 yards, with 196 coming before halftime and 234 afterward. They scored touchdowns on four straight second-half possessions. UNLV had watched the same offense for an entire half and had halftime to address it. Air Force kept running through the Rebels anyway.
Once Air Force took the lead, UNLV lost a fumble and then went three-and-out on its next possession. The Falcons scored after both, building a 41-24 lead before the Rebels scored with 38 seconds remaining. The defense could not give the offense another possession without allowing points. The offense could not keep pace with the possessions it had. A game UNLV led became a two-score loss in the fourth quarter.
Mullen owns that performance. Paul Guenther runs the defense and Corey Dennis runs the offense, but the head coach is responsible for the staff and the team’s preparation. UNLV cannot need its defense to hold NDSU to seven points one week, then need its offense to keep scoring because the defense cannot stop Air Force the next. Good teams will expose weaknesses. Mullen has to get his team to respond before those weaknesses decide the game.
The Rebels have five regular-season games left, including a trip to New Mexico, and Air Force now owns a head-to-head win that could matter in the championship race. UNLV has already shown it can beat the teams at the bottom of its schedule. The next time it has a good team facing third-and-long, or takes possession with a fourth-quarter lead, it has to finish the job. Mullen has had enough of those opportunities now that another explanation will not do much for the Rebels’ season.
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